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Home / Markets / Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Resolved market scorecard

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?: result and scorecard

Resolved Abiy Ahmed. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 97.4%; a week before, 97.0%. $286.1M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Abiy Ahmed
resolved October 6, 2026

Price 1 day before

97.4%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

97.0%
30 days before: 97.5%

Volume

$286.1M
33 outcomes

EthiopiaElectionsMain ElectionGlobal ElectionsPolitics

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Abiy AhmedWON$200K
Adanech AbiebieLOST$83.5M
Gedion TimothewosLOST$55.9M
Shimelis AbdisaLOST$41.6M
Belete MollaLOST$32.3M
Berhanu NegaLOST$29.7M
Demeke MekonnenLOST$29.3M
Alesa MengeshaLOST$13.6M
Person CLOST$0
Person DLOST$0
Person ELOST$0
Person FLOST$0
Person GLOST$0
Person HLOST$0
Person ILOST$0
Person JLOST$0
Person KLOST$0
Person LLOST$0
Person MLOST$0
Person NLOST$0
Person OLOST$0
Person PLOST$0
Person QLOST$0
Person RLOST$0
Person SLOST$0
Person TLOST$0
Person ULOST$0
Person VLOST$0
Person WLOST$0
Person XLOST$0
Person YLOST$0
Person ZLOST$0
OtherLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%04-2807-1710-06
Abiy AhmedAdanech AbiebieGedion TimothewosShimelis Abdisa
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 97% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" resolve?
It resolved Abiy Ahmed around June 2, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 97.4% one day before close, 97.0% one week before and 97.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$286.1M across 33 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?Ethiopia targets Eritrea by...?Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?All live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.