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Resolved market scorecard

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?: result and scorecard

Resolved No release by September 30. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 90.6%; a week before, 96.5%. $203K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No release by September 30
resolved October 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

90.6%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

96.5%
30 days before: 81.5%

Volume

$203K
31 outcomes

AITechGeminigoogleGemini Pro

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
No release by September 30WON$166K
September 30LOST$21K
On or prior to September 1LOST$1K
September 29LOST$1K
September 24LOST$867
September 28LOST$844
September 22LOST$753
September 16LOST$729
September 17LOST$725
September 21LOST$703
September 15LOST$662
September 23LOST$644
September 7LOST$624
September 8LOST$617
September 2LOST$592
September 26LOST$480
September 25LOST$478
September 4LOST$478
September 13LOST$476
September 3LOST$463
September 6LOST$434
September 14LOST$409
September 12LOST$408
September 10LOST$396
September 9LOST$391
September 11LOST$383
September 27LOST$379
September 5LOST$368
September 20LOST$318
September 19LOST$313
September 18LOST$310

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%08-1809-0910-01
No release by September 30September 30On or prior to September 1September 29
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 91% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" resolve?
It resolved No release by September 30 around October 1, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 90.6% one day before close, 96.5% one week before and 81.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$203K across 31 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.