Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?: result and scorecard
Resolved No release by September 30. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 90.6%; a week before, 96.5%. $203K traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| No release by September 30 | WON |
| September 30 | LOST |
| On or prior to September 1 | LOST |
| September 29 | LOST |
| September 24 | LOST |
| September 28 | LOST |
| September 22 | LOST |
| September 16 | LOST |
| September 17 | LOST |
| September 21 | LOST |
| September 15 | LOST |
| September 23 | LOST |
| September 7 | LOST |
| September 8 | LOST |
| September 2 | LOST |
| September 26 | LOST |
| September 25 | LOST |
| September 4 | LOST |
| September 13 | LOST |
| September 3 | LOST |
| September 6 | LOST |
| September 14 | LOST |
| September 12 | LOST |
| September 10 | LOST |
| September 9 | LOST |
| September 11 | LOST |
| September 27 | LOST |
| September 5 | LOST |
| September 20 | LOST |
| September 19 | LOST |
| September 18 | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" resolve?
- It resolved No release by September 30 around October 1, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 90.6% one day before close, 96.5% one week before and 81.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $203K across 31 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.