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Resolved market scorecard

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?: result and scorecard

Resolved No release by August 31. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.3%; a week before, 93.3%. $323K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No release by August 31
resolved September 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.3%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

93.3%
30 days before: 10.5%

Volume

$323K
32 outcomes

AITechGeminigoogleAI Releases

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
No release by August 31WON$90K
August 10LOST$67K
August 6LOST$22K
August 7LOST$11K
August 12LOST$11K
August 27LOST$11K
August 31LOST$10K
August 11LOST$10K
August 13LOST$9K
August 29LOST$8K
August 25LOST$7K
August 24LOST$6K
August 26LOST$5K
August 28LOST$5K
August 5LOST$5K
August 4LOST$5K
August 30LOST$4K
August 14LOST$4K
August 18LOST$4K
August 17LOST$4K
August 23LOST$4K
August 19LOST$3K
August 15LOST$3K
August 20LOST$3K
August 9LOST$3K
August 8LOST$3K
August 22LOST$3K
August 16LOST$3K
August 21LOST$2K
August 3LOST$496
August 2LOST$479
On or prior to August 1LOST$44

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%07-3008-1509-01
No release by August 31August 10August 6August 7
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" resolve?
It resolved No release by August 31 around September 1, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.3% one day before close, 93.3% one week before and 10.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$323K across 32 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.