Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?: result and scorecard
Resolved No release by August 31. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.3%; a week before, 93.3%. $323K traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| No release by August 31 | WON |
| August 10 | LOST |
| August 6 | LOST |
| August 7 | LOST |
| August 12 | LOST |
| August 27 | LOST |
| August 31 | LOST |
| August 11 | LOST |
| August 13 | LOST |
| August 29 | LOST |
| August 25 | LOST |
| August 24 | LOST |
| August 26 | LOST |
| August 28 | LOST |
| August 5 | LOST |
| August 4 | LOST |
| August 30 | LOST |
| August 14 | LOST |
| August 18 | LOST |
| August 17 | LOST |
| August 23 | LOST |
| August 19 | LOST |
| August 15 | LOST |
| August 20 | LOST |
| August 9 | LOST |
| August 8 | LOST |
| August 22 | LOST |
| August 16 | LOST |
| August 21 | LOST |
| August 3 | LOST |
| August 2 | LOST |
| On or prior to August 1 | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" resolve?
- It resolved No release by August 31 around September 1, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.3% one day before close, 93.3% one week before and 10.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $323K across 32 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.