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Resolved market scorecard

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?: result and scorecard

Resolved No release by July 31. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.8%; a week before, 96.0%. $379K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No release by July 31
resolved August 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

98.8%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

96.0%
30 days before: 9.0%

Volume

$379K
32 outcomes

AITechGeminigoogleAI Releases

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
No release by July 31WON$134K
July 17LOST$76K
July 30LOST$25K
July 24LOST$22K
July 15LOST$12K
July 21LOST$11K
July 29LOST$10K
July 16LOST$9K
July 23LOST$8K
July 31LOST$8K
July 14LOST$8K
July 28LOST$7K
July 18LOST$6K
July 22LOST$6K
July 20LOST$6K
July 19LOST$4K
July 26LOST$4K
July 25LOST$4K
July 9LOST$4K
July 27LOST$4K
July 6LOST$3K
July 13LOST$1K
July 12LOST$1K
July 11LOST$1K
July 8LOST$1K
July 7LOST$807
On or prior to July 1LOST$787
July 3LOST$682
July 2LOST$487
July 5LOST$328
July 10LOST$303
July 4LOST$303

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%06-2707-1408-01
No release by July 31July 17July 30July 24
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" resolve?
It resolved No release by July 31 around July 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.8% one day before close, 96.0% one week before and 9.0% one month before.
How much was traded?
$379K across 32 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.