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Resolved market scorecard

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?: result and scorecard

Resolved No release by June 30. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 97.5%; a week before, 93.8%. $243K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No release by June 30
resolved July 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

97.5%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

93.8%
30 days before: –

Volume

$243K
30 outcomes

AITechGeminigoogleRewards 50, 4.5, 100 Deprec

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
No release by June 30WON$61K
June 30LOST$34K
June 23LOST$19K
June 9LOST$19K
June 26LOST$11K
June 29LOST$11K
June 24LOST$9K
June 4LOST$9K
June 25LOST$8K
June 22LOST$7K
June 16LOST$6K
June 11LOST$5K
June 17LOST$4K
June 28LOST$4K
June 27LOST$3K
June 13LOST$3K
June 19LOST$3K
June 18LOST$3K
June 12LOST$3K
June 14LOST$3K
June 3LOST$3K
June 15LOST$2K
June 20LOST$2K
June 21LOST$2K
June 5LOST$2K
June 10LOST$2K
June 6LOST$2K
June 7LOST$1K
June 8LOST$1K
On or prior to June 2LOST$646

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%06-0206-1607-01
No release by June 30June 30June 23June 9
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 97% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" resolve?
It resolved No release by June 30 around June 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 97.5% one day before close, 93.8% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$243K across 30 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.