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Home / Markets / Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by...?
Resolved market scorecard

Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by...?: result and scorecard

Resolved September 2. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 67.5%; a week before, –. $209K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

September 2
resolved September 2, 2026

Price 1 day before

67.5%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

–
30 days before: –

Volume

$209K
10 outcomes

AITechGeminigoogleAI Releases

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
September 2WON$127K
September 4WON$21K
September 3WON$15K
September 15WON$14K
September 30WON$9K
September 11WON$7K
September 9WON$4K
October 31WON$786
September 1LOST$8K
August 31LOST$3K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%08-1808-2509-02
September 2September 4September 3September 15
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 68% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by...?" resolve?
It resolved September 2 around October 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 67.5% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$209K across 10 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.