How did "NATO Article 5 by March 31?" resolve?

It resolved No around March 31, 2026.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 98.7% one week before and 90.8% one month before.

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NATO Article 5 by March 31?: result and scorecard

Name: NATO Article 5 by March 31? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.9%; a week before, 98.7%. $43K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved April 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.9%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

98.7%

30 days before: 90.8%

Volume

$43K

1 outcome

NATO Politics World Geopolitics

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$43K
No	WON	$43K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.

Frequently asked questions

How did "NATO Article 5 by March 31?" resolve?: It resolved No around March 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 98.7% one week before and 90.8% one month before.
How much was traded?: $43K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.