Muse Charm released by...?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is December 31 at 87.5%, ahead of December 15 at 72.0%. $10K traded across 4 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 87.5% | +0.5 |
| December 15 | 72.0% | -6.5 |
| November 30 | 25.5% | -10.0 |
| November 15 | 11.0% | -1.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta officially releases the Muse Charm by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Muse Charm" refers to the device unveiled by Meta on September 23, 2026, including its final commercial version under any name or branding. Any name change or rebranding of the Muse Charm will have no bearing on this market's resolution. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public in the United States and shipments to public customers or availability for customer pickup must have begun by the specified deadline. Availability in selected US locations or in limited quantities will qualify. Access restricted to selected testers or invitees will not qualify. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements and product pages from Meta; however, availability information from authorized retailers or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Muse Charm released by...?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, December 31 is the favorite at 87.5%, followed by December 15 at 72.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $10K in total and $28 in the last 24 hours, with about $3K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.