Mexico Annual Inflation 2026: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 3.50% to 3.99% at 60.8%, ahead of 3.00% to 3.49% at 24.9%. $109K traded across 8 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
EconomyInflationCPIMacro IndicatorsMexico
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 3.50% to 3.99% | 60.8% | -0.9 |
| 3.00% to 3.49% | 24.9% | -0.5 |
| 4.00% to 4.49% | 10.0% | -2.0 |
| 4.50% to 4.99% | 4.6% | +0.2 |
| 2.50% to 2.99% | 3.3% | +1.8 |
| 5.00% to 5.49% | 0.6% | -0.1 |
| <2.50% | 0.3% | -0.1 |
| 5.50%+ | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Mexico Annual Inflation 2026"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 3.50% to 3.99% is the favorite at 60.8%, followed by 3.00% to 3.49% at 24.9%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 9, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $109K in total and $138 in the last 24 hours, with about $12K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.