LIVE Hyperliquid whale tracker: the largest open positions and what they are doing, updated every few minutes →
Home / Markets / March Unemployment Rate
Resolved market scorecard

March Unemployment Rate: result and scorecard

Resolved 4.3%. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 19.0%; a week before, 12.0%. $308K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

4.3%
resolved April 3, 2026

Price 1 day before

19.0%
Market leaned the wrong way

Price 7 days before

12.0%
30 days before: 27.5%

Volume

$308K
9 outcomes

EconomyMacro IndicatorsNFPnonfarm payrollunemployment

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
4.3%WON$39K
4.0%LOST$124K
≤3.9%LOST$33K
≥4.7%LOST$32K
4.2%LOST$23K
4.6%LOST$22K
4.4%LOST$16K
4.1%LOST$14K
4.5%LOST$7K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%02-1403-0703-29
4.3%4.0%≤3.9%≥4.7%
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 19% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Frequently asked questions

How did "March Unemployment Rate" resolve?
It resolved 4.3% around April 3, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 19.0% one day before close, 12.0% one week before and 27.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$308K across 9 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.