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Home / Markets / JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?
Resolved market scorecard

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?: result and scorecard

Resolved June 30. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 90.0%; a week before, 34.5%. $427K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

June 30
resolved June 21, 2026

Price 1 day before

90.0%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

34.5%
30 days before: 37.5%

Volume

$427K
3 outcomes

IranVancePoliticsGeopoliticsTrump

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
June 30WON$270K
May 31LOST$101K
May 15LOST$56K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%05-0205-2706-21
June 30May 31May 15
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 90% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?" resolve?
It resolved June 30 around June 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 90.0% one day before close, 34.5% one week before and 37.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$427K across 3 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.