How many Taiwanese mayor/magistrate races will KMT win?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 14 at 38.5%, ahead of 10 at 38.0%. $1K traded across 9 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
TaiwanPoliticsElectionsGlobal ElectionsTaiwan Elections
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 38.5% | +1.5 |
| 10 | 38.0% | 0.0 |
| 13 | 37.0% | +1.0 |
| 9 | 35.0% | -6.0 |
| ≥15 | 35.0% | -1.5 |
| 8 | 34.5% | +21.5 |
| 11 | 24.0% | -12.5 |
| 12 | 17.0% | -19.0 |
| ≤7 | 7.5% | -9.5 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of Mayor and Magistrate elections for Taiwan’s special municipalities, counties, and cities won by the Kuomintang (KMT) during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County If the results of the 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "How many Taiwanese mayor/magistrate races will KMT win?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 14 is the favorite at 38.5%, followed by 10 at 38.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 29, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $1K in total and $789 in the last 24 hours, with about $3K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.