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House Majority Leader of the next Congress?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is Katherine Clark at 97.2%, ahead of A at 50.0%. $8K traded across 26 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

97.2%
Katherine Clark · Trade →

24h move

+1.7
pts · 7d 0.0

Volume

$8K
24h $950 · liquidity $41K

Closes

January 3, 2027
58 days left

SpeakerCongressMidtermsPoliticsdemocrat

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Katherine Clark97.2% +1.70.0$3K1.4¢
A50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
B50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
C50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
D50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
E50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
F50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
G50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
H50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
I50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
J50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
K50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
L50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
M50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
N50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
O50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Other50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Pete Aguilar2.1% +0.30.0$5351.1¢
Hakeem Jeffries1.0% -1.80.0$1K1.4¢
Steve Scalise0.3% -0.20.0$4370.4¢
Ted Lieu0.2% -0.10.0$5270.2¢
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez0.2% -0.10.0$5290.2¢
Jim Jordan0.2% -0.10.0$5070.2¢
Joe Neguse0.1% -0.40.0$4770.1¢
Tom Emmer0.1% -0.50.0$3230.1¢
Lisa McClain0.1% -0.40.0$4260.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%11-0211-0411-06
Katherine Clark

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the first individual selected to be Majority Leader of the United States House of Representatives for the 120th United States Congress, which is scheduled to convene in January 2027 following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Katherine Clark at 97% risks 97¢ to win 3¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "House Majority Leader of the next Congress?"?
As of November 6, 2026, Katherine Clark is the favorite at 97.2%, followed by A at 50.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 3, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$8K in total and $950 in the last 24 hours, with about $41K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Speaker of the House after the midterms?Will the 120th Congress Speaker be elected on the first ballot?How many votes will Hakeem Jeffries get on first ballot?House Minority Leader of the next Congress?All live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.