Will the 120th Congress Speaker be elected on the first ballot?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

The election for Speaker of the United States House of Representatives is expected to take place on January 3, 2027, on the opening day of the 120th United States Congress. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Speaker of the House for the 120th United States Congress is elected on the first ballot. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A ballot is a roll call vote of the House to elect a Speaker, as conducted and announced by the Clerk of the House. Quorum calls and votes on procedural motions (such as motions to adjourn) are not ballots. A candidate is elected when the Clerk announces that they have received a majority of the votes cast for a person by name on that ballot. If no ballot to elect the Speaker of the 120th Congress has taken place by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Any individual elected to be, appointed to be, or serving as Speaker pro tempore in the 120th congress will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call votes for the election of the Speaker published by the Clerk of the US House of Representatives (clerk.house.gov), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.