Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 60%+ at 60.5%, ahead of 65%+ at 35.0%. $143K traded across 3 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 60%+ | 60.5% | +7.0 |
| 65%+ | 35.0% | +24.0 |
| 70%+ | 4.7% | +0.3 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 60%+ is the favorite at 60.5%, followed by 65%+ at 35.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $143K in total and $710 in the last 24 hours, with about $829 of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.