How did "Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed real?" resolve?

It resolved No around January 10, 2026.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 100.0% one day before close, 99.7% one week before and – one month before.

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Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed real?: result and scorecard

Name: Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed real? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 100.0%; a week before, 99.7%. $400K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved January 11, 2026

Price 1 day before

100.0%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.7%

30 days before: –

Volume

$400K

1 outcome

Trump Epstein Politics

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$400K
No	WON	$400K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

On December 22, a video surfaced depicting the 2019 suicide of Jeffrey Epstein in his prison cell, sourced from the Epstein files released on December 19. https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%208/EFTA00029924.mp4 This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is definitive evidence confirming the authenticity of the video by January 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If any federal authority of the United States formally confirms that the video is not significantly digitally altered, edited, AI-generated or augmented, or doctored to make it appear as though it is footage of Jeffrey Epstein's suicide it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the US Government.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed real?" resolve?: It resolved No around January 10, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 100.0% one day before close, 99.7% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $400K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.