Dem sweep & Chinese AI model #1 by end of 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether a Chinese company has the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard by the end of 2027. Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("China #1 AI" or "China not #1"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No". Chinese AI model: This component is "China #1 AI" if a Chinese company owns the model ranked first on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the leaderboard is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it is "China not #1". Results from the "Rank" section under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used. Models marked "AutoEval" at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This component is "China #1 AI" only if a Chinese company’s model occupies the first position under this ranking system. The resolution source for this component is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, the first check after it be