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Home / Markets / Bank of Canada decision in April?
Resolved market scorecard

Bank of Canada decision in April?: result and scorecard

Resolved No change. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.7%; a week before, 98.5%. $252K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No change
resolved April 29, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.7%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

98.5%
30 days before: 95.5%

Volume

$252K
4 outcomes

EconomyGlobal RatesRateCanadaWorld

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
No changeWON$82K
50+ bps decreaseLOST$80K
25 bps decreaseLOST$51K
IncreaseLOST$39K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%01-3103-1604-29
No change50+ bps decrease25 bps decreaseIncrease
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Bank of Canada decision in April?" resolve?
It resolved No change around April 29, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.7% one day before close, 98.5% one week before and 95.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$252K across 4 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.