Who is favored in "Anthropic lab leak by...?"?

As of November 6, 2026, June 30, 2027 is the favorite at 7.0%, followed by December 31, 2026 at 2.6%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$165K in total and $13 in the last 24 hours, with about $54K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Anthropic lab leak by...?

Live market data

Anthropic lab leak by...?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Anthropic lab leak by...? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is June 30, 2027 at 7.0%, ahead of December 31, 2026 at 2.6%. $165K traded across 2 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:14 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

7.0%

June 30, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

-0.5

pts · 7d -0.5

Volume

$165K

24h $13 · liquidity $54K

Closes

July 1, 2027

237 days left

AI Tech virus Claude health

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
June 30, 2027	7.0%	-0.5	-0.5	$126K	2.0¢
December 31, 2026	2.6%	0.0	-0.1	$39K	0.8¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:14 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

June 30, 2027December 31, 2026

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required. Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying June 30, 2027 at 7% risks 7¢ to win 93¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Anthropic lab leak by...?"?: As of November 6, 2026, June 30, 2027 is the favorite at 7.0%, followed by December 31, 2026 at 2.6%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $165K in total and $13 in the last 24 hours, with about $54K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.