How did "Government shutdown on Saturday?" resolve?

It resolved No around February 14, 2026.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 97.8% one day before close, 35.5% one week before and – one month before.

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Government shutdown on Saturday?: result and scorecard

Name: Government shutdown on Saturday? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 97.8%; a week before, 35.5%. $13.6M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved February 15, 2026

Price 1 day before

97.8%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

35.5%

30 days before: –

Volume

$13.6M

1 outcome

Trump Gov Shutdown Politics Congress

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$13.6M
No	WON	$13.6M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 98% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces a new federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A continuation, without any reopening, of the partial government shutdown which began on January 31, 2026, will not qualify. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

Frequently asked questions

How did "Government shutdown on Saturday?" resolve?: It resolved No around February 14, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 97.8% one day before close, 35.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $13.6M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.