Prediction markets
Yes and No shares
The two sides of a binary prediction market contract, which together always pay exactly $1 at resolution.
Buying Yes at 64 cents and No at 36 cents costs $1 and returns $1, so the two prices should sum to a dollar minus the spread. Holding No is the same as being short Yes. On Polymarket a Yes and a No share can be merged back into $1 of collateral at any time.
Prices below 50 cents for No mean the market considers the event more likely than not. Many beginners misread No prices; the No price is the probability the event does not happen.
Multi-outcome markets are collections of these binary pairs, one per candidate or team.
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More prediction markets terms
Frequently asked questions
- What does "Yes and No shares" mean?
- The two sides of a binary prediction market contract, which together always pay exactly $1 at resolution.
- Why does yes and no shares matter for prediction markets?
- Multi-outcome markets are collections of these binary pairs, one per candidate or team.