Prediction markets
Resolution
The process of deciding the final outcome of a market and paying $1 per winning share.
Every market defines a resolution source and criteria in its rules: an official election certification, a government data release, a league result. When the outcome is known the venue (or, on Polymarket, the UMA oracle) marks one outcome as the winner, winning shares redeem for $1 and losing shares expire worthless.
Most disputes come from ambiguous wording. "Will X happen by June 30" can hinge on time zones, on what counts as "happen," and on whether a source has been updated. Reading the rules before trading is the single most useful habit.
Markets can resolve early if the outcome becomes certain, or late if the source is delayed or a dispute is raised.
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Frequently asked questions
- What does "Resolution" mean?
- The process of deciding the final outcome of a market and paying $1 per winning share.
- Why does resolution matter for prediction markets?
- Markets can resolve early if the outcome becomes certain, or late if the source is delayed or a dispute is raised.