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Home / Markets / Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
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Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 10.5% (-2.0 pts in 24h). $3K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

10.5%
No 89.5% · Trade →

24h move

-2.0
pts · 7d -2.5

Volume

$3K
24h $0 · liquidity $483

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

FiscalTrumpPoliticsTaxesEconomy

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes10.5% -2.0-2.5$3K11.0¢
No89.5% +2.0+2.5$3K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%11-0605-0711-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 11% risks 11¢ to win 90¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 10.5% and No at 89.5%, on $3K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$3K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $483 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.