How did "Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?" resolve?

It resolved Yes around May 1, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 100.0% one day before close, 98.4% one week before and 78.5% one month before.

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Resolved market scorecard

Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?: result and scorecard

Name: Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 100.0%; a week before, 98.4%. $721K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved May 1, 2025

Price 1 day before

100.0%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

98.4%

30 days before: 78.5%

Volume

$721K

1 outcome

TikTok Trump 100 Days Trump Presidency Politics Tech

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$721K
No	LOST	$721K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok iOS app is available for download on the US Apple App Store on May 1, 2025 12:00 PM ET (noon). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the app is inaccessible due to technical issues with the App Store itself, it will still be considered available for download. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Apple and the Apple App Store, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?" resolve?: It resolved Yes around May 1, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 100.0% one day before close, 98.4% one week before and 78.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $721K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.