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Home / Markets / Will TikTok be banned before July?
Resolved market scorecard

Will TikTok be banned before July?: result and scorecard

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.5%; a week before, 98.7%. $256K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No
resolved July 1, 2025

Price 1 day before

99.5%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

98.7%
30 days before: 93.5%

Volume

$256K
1 outcome

TikTokTechTrump PresidencyPolitics

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesLOST$256K
NoWON$256K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%04-1805-2507-01
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

On April 4, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order extending the delay of enforcement of the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which prohibits TikTok in the United States, until June 19, 2025 (see:https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/extending-the-tiktok-enforcement-delay/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. government ban that prohibits access or use of the TikTok app by the majority of Americans in the United States becomes legally enforceable for any amount of time between April 17, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Trump’s executive order delaying enforcement of the ban expires or is removed without TikTok coming into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether enforcement action is taken by the U.S. government. If TikTok is sold to another entity in such a way that it comes into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will TikTok be banned before July?" resolve?
It resolved No around June 30, 2025.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.5% one day before close, 98.7% one week before and 93.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$256K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.