Any member-elect blocked from being sworn in on Jan 3, 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

The 120th United States Congress is scheduled to convene on January 3, 2027. On each chamber's opening day, the members-elect of the House of Representatives and the newly elected members of the Senate are expected to take the oath of office. This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on the day a chamber swears in its members-elect, any member-elect of that chamber is not sworn in because the oath is withheld from them. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The oath is withheld from a member-elect if they are not sworn in on that day for any reason other than their own absence or choice, including, but not limited to: - an objection to, or challenge of, their election or credentials, including being asked to stand aside while the other members-elect take the oath; - a vote or decision by the chamber not to seat them; - the referral of their credentials or right to the seat to a committee; or - a decision by the presiding officer or the Clerk of the House not to administer the oath to them. The following will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution: - A member-elect who is absent, ill, or otherwise does not appear to take the oath on that day. - A member-elect who resigns, declines to take their seat, or otherwise ceases to be a member-elect before the oath is administered. - A seat for which no winner has been certified by the appropriate state authority by the time the chamber convenes (e.g. a close race that is still being counted or recounted). A "member-elect" is any individual certified by the appropriate state authority, as of the day the relevant chamber convenes, as the winner of an election to the U.S. House of Representatives or the U.S. Senate for a term beginning on January 3, 2027, including the winner of any special election certified by that time. Delegates and the Resident Commissioner are not included. A member-elect is sworn in when the oath of office is administered to them on the floor of their chamber on that day, whether together with other members-elect or individually. The relevant day for each chamber is: - Senate: the day the Senate first convenes in the 120th Congress and swears in newly elected Senators. - House: the day the House administers the oath of office to its members-elect, which happens after a Speaker is elected. If the House has not elected a Speaker on January 3, 2027, the relevant day is the day the oath is administered after the Speaker is elected. If the 120th Congr