What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 82.5% one day before close, 10.0% one week before and 26.5% one month before.

Home / Markets / Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August?

Resolved market scorecard

Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August?: result and scorecard

Name: Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 82.5%; a week before, 10.0%. $1.7M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved July 29, 2025

Price 1 day before

82.5%

Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

10.0%

30 days before: 26.5%

Volume

$1.7M

1 outcome

Crypto MicroStrategy MSTR Michael Saylor

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$1.7M
No	LOST	$1.7M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 83% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated holds 620,000 or more bitcoins at any point by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August?" resolve?: It resolved Yes around July 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 82.5% one day before close, 10.0% one week before and 26.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $1.7M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.