What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.7% one day before close, 91.5% one week before and 53.0% one month before.

Home / Markets / Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30

Resolved market scorecard

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?: result and scorecard

Name: Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.7%; a week before, 91.5%. $2.4M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved December 1, 2025

Price 1 day before

99.7%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

91.5%

30 days before: 53.0%

Volume

$2.4M

1 outcome

Crypto MicroStrategy

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$2.4M
No	WON	$2.4M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated or Michael Saylor officially announce that the company’s total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings. For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?" resolve?: It resolved No around December 1, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.7% one day before close, 91.5% one week before and 53.0% one month before.
How much was traded?: $2.4M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.