Resolved market scorecard
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?: result and scorecard
Resolved April 30. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 96.3%; a week before, 18.5%. $137K traded in total.
Result
April 30
resolved April 12, 2026
Price 1 day before
96.3%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
18.5%
30 days before: –
Volume
$137K
2 outcomes
IranGeopoliticsU.S. x IranTrumpVance
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| April 30 | WON |
| March 31 | LOST |
Price history to resolution
April 30March 31
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 96% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
Rules
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?" resolve?
- It resolved April 30 around April 30, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 96.3% one day before close, 18.5% one week before and – one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $137K across 2 outcomes.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.