Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

Grand Theft Auto VI is scheduled to release on November 19, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jason Duval or Lucia Caminos has a canonical death within the story mode of “Grand Theft Auto VI”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A canonical death is a death that is a built-in, intended part of the game's main story, occurring during a story mission, cutscene, or one of the game's endings, rather than a death caused by the player during free-roam/open-world play outside of story missions. Deaths that occur while free-roaming (e.g., (i) the player triggering the “Wasted” screen; or (ii) being killed by police, NPCs, or environmental hazards outside of an active story mission) will not count toward resolution, regardless of whether the game displays a death or game-over screen. A qualifying death must show the character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of the character occurs, etc.). Deaths occurring in any ending of “Grand Theft Auto VI” will count toward resolution, including alternate endings reached through player choice, provided that ending is actually accessible in the released version of the game. If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify. A death resulting from gameplay failure (e.g., the “Wasted” screen, failing a mission, or restarting from a checkpoint) will not count, even within a story mission, unless that specific outcome is itself the designated canonical result of a choice made within the story, as opposed to simply being returned to a retry or checkpoint after failing. A qualifying death must result from the story’s actual narrative progression or an available branching path, not from the player failing to complete a mission’s objectives. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of the story mode of “Grand Theft Auto VI” will qualify. Only events depicted in the official story mode of “Grand Theft Auto VI” will count toward resolution. Epilogue missions and scenes shown during or after the credits cou