How did "Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?" resolve?

It resolved No around December 31, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 99.8% one week before and 98.9% one month before.

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Resolved market scorecard

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?: result and scorecard

Name: Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.9%; a week before, 99.8%. $12.4M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved January 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.9%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.8%

30 days before: 98.9%

Volume

$12.4M

1 outcome

China Geopolitics Politics Foreign Policy World

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$12.4M
No	WON	$12.4M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?" resolve?: It resolved No around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 99.8% one week before and 98.9% one month before.
How much was traded?: $12.4M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.