Resolved market scorecard
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?: result and scorecard
Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.9%; a week before, 99.4%. $5.7M traded in total.
Result
No
resolved January 1, 2025
Price 1 day before
99.9%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
99.4%
30 days before: 97.3%
Volume
$5.7M
1 outcome
AllGeopoliticsChinaTaiwanPolitics
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Yes | LOST |
| No | WON |
Price history to resolution
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Taiwan by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?" resolve?
- It resolved No around December 30, 2024.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 99.4% one week before and 97.3% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $5.7M across 1 outcome.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.