What are the odds that Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 39.5% and No at 60.5%, on $485K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$485K in total and $922 in the last 24 hours, with about $14K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?

Live market data

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 39.5% (-2.0 pts in 24h). $485K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

39.5%

No 60.5% · Trade →

24h move

-2.0

pts · 7d -3.0

Volume

$485K

24h $922 · liquidity $14K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Crypto Prices Price Comparison Crypto Bitcoin

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	39.5%	-2.0	-3.0	$485K	1.0¢
No	60.5%	+2.0	+3.0	$485K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized. If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 40% risks 40¢ to win 61¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 39.5% and No at 60.5%, on $485K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $485K in total and $922 in the last 24 hours, with about $14K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.