Who is favored in "Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?"?

As of November 6, 2026, 1575 is the favorite at 19.0%, followed by 1600 at 7.0%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$154K in total and $395 in the last 24 hours, with about $5K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?

Live market data

Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is 1575 at 19.0%, ahead of 1600 at 7.0%. $154K traded across 2 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

19.0%

1575 · Trade →

24h move

+0.5

pts · 7d +3.5

Volume

$154K

24h $395 · liquidity $5K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Big Tech AI Tech AI Benchmarks Recurring

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
1575	19.0%	+0.5	+3.5	$68K	2.0¢
1600	7.0%	-0.2	+0.3	$17K	1.9¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

15751600

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying 1575 at 19% risks 19¢ to win 81¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?"?: As of November 6, 2026, 1575 is the favorite at 19.0%, followed by 1600 at 7.0%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $154K in total and $395 in the last 24 hours, with about $5K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.