Resolved market scorecard
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?: result and scorecard
Resolved No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 74.3%; a week before, 67.8%. $443K traded in total.
Result
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate
resolved November 4, 2026
Price 1 day before
74.3%
Market leaned the right way
Price 7 days before
67.8%
30 days before: –
Volume
$443K
4 outcomes
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | WON |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | LOST |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | LOST |
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | LOST |
Price history to resolution
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D SenateAgreement + Oil < $80; R SenateAgreement + Oil < $80; D SenateNo Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 74% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?" resolve?
- It resolved No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate around November 4, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 74.3% one day before close, 67.8% one week before and – one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $443K across 4 outcomes.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.