What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.1% one day before close, 99.7% one week before and – one month before.

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Which song Taylor Swift's "The Life of a Showgirl" will be highest rank on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18?: result and scorecard

Name: Which song Taylor Swift's "The Life of a Showgirl" will be highest rank on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved The Fate of Ophelia. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.1%; a week before, 99.7%. $527K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

The Fate of Ophelia

resolved October 14, 2025

Price 1 day before

99.1%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.7%

30 days before: –

Volume

$527K

13 outcomes

Taylor Swift Culture Music

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
The Fate of Ophelia	WON	$71K
The Life of a Showgirl (feat. Sabrina Carpenter)	LOST	$276K
Wood	LOST	$32K
Honey	LOST	$19K
Elizabeth Taylor	LOST	$18K
Ruin The Friendship	LOST	$18K
Actually Romantic	LOST	$17K
Wi$h Li$t	LOST	$16K
CANCELLED!	LOST	$16K
Eldest Daughter	LOST	$15K
Father Figure	LOST	$15K
Opalite	LOST	$14K
Other	LOST	$0

Price history to resolution

The Fate of OpheliaThe Life of a Showgirl (feat. Sabrina Carpenter)WoodHoney

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on which track from Taylor Swift’s new album appears as the highest-ranked song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week titled “week of October 18, 2025.” If none of the listed titles appear on the Billboard Hot 100 for that week, this market will resolve to the listed title that comes first alphabetically. The resolution source will be Billboard.com.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Which song Taylor Swift's "The Life of a Showgirl" will be highest rank on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18?" resolve?: It resolved The Fate of Ophelia around October 18, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.1% one day before close, 99.7% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $527K across 13 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.