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Resolved market scorecard

Which company has the best AI model end of February?: result and scorecard

Resolved Anthropic. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.7%; a week before, 92.5%. $22.5M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Anthropic
resolved February 28, 2026

Price 1 day before

98.7%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

92.5%
30 days before: 0.9%

Volume

$22.5M
25 outcomes

Big TechOpenAIAITechClaude 5

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
AnthropicWON$3.8M
GoogleLOST$4.1M
xAILOST$3.1M
OpenAILOST$2.7M
DeepSeekLOST$2.5M
MeituanLOST$1.5M
AlibabaLOST$1.3M
MoonshotLOST$1.1M
Z.aiLOST$947K
BaiduLOST$832K
MistralLOST$691K
OtherLOST$0
Company ALOST$0
Company BLOST$0
Company CLOST$0
Company DLOST$0
Company ELOST$0
Company FLOST$0
Company GLOST$0
Company HLOST$0
Company ILOST$0
Company JLOST$0
Company KLOST$0
Company LLOST$0
Company MLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%01-2802-1202-28
AnthropicGooglexAIOpenAI
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on February 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Which company has the best AI model end of February?" resolve?
It resolved Anthropic around February 28, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.7% one day before close, 92.5% one week before and 0.9% one month before.
How much was traded?
$22.5M across 25 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.