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Live market data

When will Bitcoin hit $100k?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is by December 31, 2027 at 63.5%, ahead of by September 30, 2027 at 55.5%. $162K traded across 5 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

63.5%
by December 31, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

+1.0
pts · 7d -19.0

Volume

$162K
24h $2K · liquidity $185K

Closes

January 1, 2028
421 days left

CryptoBitcoinCrypto PricesPrice Milestone

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
by December 31, 202763.5% +1.0-19.0$12K3.0¢
by September 30, 202755.5% -5.5+1.0$15K1.0¢
by June 30, 202745.5% -6.5-1.0$10K1.0¢
by March 31, 202730.5% -4.5-3.0$9K1.0¢
by December 31, 20267.0% -6.5-8.5$73K4.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%08-2109-2811-06
by December 31, 2027by September 30, 2027by June 30, 2027by March 31, 2027

Market rules and resolution

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $100,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying by December 31, 2027 at 64% risks 64¢ to win 37¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "When will Bitcoin hit $100k?"?
As of November 6, 2026, by December 31, 2027 is the favorite at 63.5%, followed by by September 30, 2027 at 55.5%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$162K in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $185K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.