What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 4.25% at 65.5%, ahead of 4.0% at 31.2%. $7.1M traded across 15 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
Fed RatesEconomic PolicyTrumpFedPolitics
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 4.25% | 65.5% | -9.8 |
| 4.0% | 31.2% | +10.9 |
| ≥ 4.5% | 1.5% | -0.1 |
| 3.75% | 1.4% | -0.1 |
| 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.0 |
| ≤1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| 1.25 | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| 2.25% | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| 1.75% | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| 3.25% | 0.2% | -0.1 |
| 3.0% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 2.75% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 4.25% is the favorite at 65.5%, followed by 4.0% at 31.2%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $7.1M in total and $7K in the last 24 hours, with about $336K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.