What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in November 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is ↓ $730 at 89.0%, ahead of ↓ $720 at 66.5%. $48K traded across 15 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
FinanceMonthlyHit PriceHide From NewFinance Updown
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| ↓ $730 | 89.0% | +69.5 |
| ↓ $720 | 66.5% | +53.0 |
| ↑ $750 | 64.0% | 0.0 |
| ↓ $710 | 53.5% | +46.0 |
| ↓ $690 | 46.5% | 0.0 |
| ↓ $680 | 45.5% | 0.0 |
| ↑ $760 | 40.5% | 0.0 |
| ↓ $700 | 34.5% | +28.0 |
| ↑ $770 | 26.5% | -60.0 |
| ↑ $780 | 15.5% | -42.0 |
| ↑ $790 | 8.5% | -24.5 |
| ↑ $800 | 6.0% | -9.0 |
| ↑ $810 | 5.0% | -1.5 |
| ↑ $830 | 2.9% | -0.3 |
| ↑ $820 | 2.4% | -0.6 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:30 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in November 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during November 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices av
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in November 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, ↓ $730 is the favorite at 89.0%, followed by ↓ $720 at 66.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $48K in total and $23K in the last 24 hours, with about $78K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.