US/Israel strikes Iran by...?: result and scorecard
Resolved February 28. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 7.5%; a week before, 19.5%. $19.8M traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
IranMiddle EastIsraelWorldGeopolitics
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| February 28 | WON |
| March 31 | WON |
| June 30 | WON |
| December 31 | WON |
| January 31 | LOST |
| February 15 | LOST |
| January 12 | LOST |
| January 11 | LOST |
| January 10 | LOST |
| January 9 | LOST |
| January 8 | LOST |
| January 13 | OPEN |
| January 14 | OPEN |
| January 15 | OPEN |
| January 16 | LOST |
| January 17 | LOST |
| January 18 | LOST |
| January 19 | LOST |
| January 20 | LOST |
| January 21 | LOST |
| January 22 | LOST |
| January 23 | LOST |
| January 24 | LOST |
| January 25 | LOST |
| January 26 | LOST |
| January 27 | LOST |
| January 28 | LOST |
| January 29 | LOST |
| January 30 | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "US/Israel strikes Iran by...?" resolve?
- It resolved February 28 around December 31, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 7.5% one day before close, 19.5% one week before and 49.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $19.8M across 29 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.