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Home / Markets / US/Israel strikes Iran by...?
Resolved market scorecard

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?: result and scorecard

Resolved February 28. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 7.5%; a week before, 19.5%. $19.8M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:55 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

February 28
resolved February 28, 2026

Price 1 day before

7.5%
Market was confident and wrong

Price 7 days before

19.5%
30 days before: 49.5%

Volume

$19.8M
29 outcomes

IranMiddle EastIsraelWorldGeopolitics

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
February 28WON$5.9M
March 31WON$1.5M
June 30WON$752K
December 31WON$583K
January 31LOST$6.5M
February 15LOST$2.8M
January 12LOST$837K
January 11LOST$435K
January 10LOST$344K
January 9LOST$126K
January 8LOST$102K
January 13OPEN$0
January 14OPEN$0
January 15OPEN$0
January 16LOST$0
January 17LOST$0
January 18LOST$0
January 19LOST$0
January 20LOST$0
January 21LOST$0
January 22LOST$0
January 23LOST$0
January 24LOST$0
January 25LOST$0
January 26LOST$0
January 27LOST$0
January 28LOST$0
January 29LOST$0
January 30LOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%01-1702-0702-28
February 28March 31June 30December 31
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 8% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "US/Israel strikes Iran by...?" resolve?
It resolved February 28 around December 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 7.5% one day before close, 19.5% one week before and 49.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$19.8M across 29 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.