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Home / Markets / Kamala Harris wins a solid red state?
Resolved market scorecard

Kamala Harris wins a solid red state?: result and scorecard

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.4%; a week before, 92.5%. $869K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No
resolved November 7, 2024

Price 1 day before

99.4%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

92.5%
30 days before: 88.0%

Volume

$869K
1 outcome

U.S. PoliticsPoliticsUS Politicsu.s. presidential election 2024us presidential election 2024

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesLOST$869K
NoWON$869K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%04-1907-2911-07
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic candidate for president wins the popular vote in any solid red state(s) in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Solid red states include: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming. Solid red states are defined using the Cook Political Report's ratings as of this market's inception. Further changes to cook political report's rankings will not be considered for this market. Individual congressional district electors will not count towards the resolution of this market; only statewide popular vote results will be considered. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. This market may resolve immediately if at least one of the listed states has been called for the Democratic candidate for President by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or if all listed states have been called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Kamala Harris wins a solid red state?" resolve?
It resolved No around November 5, 2024.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.4% one day before close, 92.5% one week before and 88.0% one month before.
How much was traded?
$869K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.