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Home / Markets / Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
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Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 1.7% (0.0 pts in 24h). $32K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

1.7%
No 98.4% · Trade →

24h move

0.0
pts · 7d -1.6

Volume

$32K
24h $0 · liquidity $8K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

FedfomcTrumpWarshEconomy

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes1.7% 0.0-1.6$32K0.9¢
No98.4% 0.0+1.6$32K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 2% risks 2¢ to win 98¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 1.7% and No at 98.4%, on $32K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$32K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $8K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.