Resolved market scorecard
Who will be part of Trump's Administration?: result and scorecard
Resolved Elon Musk. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.8%; a week before, 31.0%. $7.7M traded in total.
Result
Elon Musk
resolved February 7, 2025
Price 1 day before
99.8%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
31.0%
30 days before: 5.5%
Volume
$7.7M
23 outcomes
TrumpPost ElectionTrump PresidencyU.S. Politics
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Elon Musk | WON |
| David Sacks | WON |
| RFK Jr. | WON |
| Marco Rubio | WON |
| Tulsi Gabbard | WON |
| Kari Lake | WON |
| Doug Burgum | WON |
| Bernie Sanders | LOST |
| Mike Pompeo | LOST |
| Nikki Haley | LOST |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | LOST |
| Ivanka Trump | LOST |
| Ron Paul | LOST |
| Donald Trump Jr. | LOST |
| Jared Kushner | LOST |
| Ben Carson | LOST |
| Ron DeSantis | LOST |
| Steve Bannon | LOST |
| Matt Gaetz | LOST |
| Jamie Dimon | LOST |
| Ken Paxton | LOST |
| Betsy DeVos | LOST |
| Sarah Palin | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Elon MuskDavid SacksRFK Jr.Marco Rubio
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This is a market on who will be in the Trump White House.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Who will be part of Trump's Administration?" resolve?
- It resolved Elon Musk around March 31, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 31.0% one week before and 5.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $7.7M across 23 outcomes.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.