Tompkins County District Attorney out by November 30?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Matthew Van Houten’s departure as District Attorney of Tompkins County, New York is officially announced between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The departure will be considered to be announced when Matthew Van Houten, the Tompkins County District Attorney’s Office, the Office of the Governor of New York, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Matthew Van Houten has ceased or will cease to hold the position of District Attorney of Tompkins County. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when Matthew Van Houten formally leaves the position. Announcements of Matthew Van Houten’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to Matthew Van Houten’s duties as District Attorney of Tompkins County do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that Matthew Van Houten is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that Matthew Van Houten will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that Matthew Van Houten plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than Matthew Van Houten, the Tompkins County District Attorney’s Office, the Office of the Governor of New York, or their authorized representatives. If Matthew Van Houten formally ceases to hold the position of District Attorney of Tompkins County without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Matthew Van Houten, the Tompkins County District Attorney’s Office, and the Office of the Governor of New York; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.