S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 6?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is $740 at 32.0%, ahead of $745 at 24.5%. $398 traded across 11 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
FinanceEquitiesStocksDailyUp or Down
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| $740 | 32.0% | 0.0 |
| $745 | 24.5% | 0.0 |
| $750 | 10.5% | 0.0 |
| $755 | 3.5% | 0.0 |
| $760 | 2.7% | 0.0 |
| $765 | 2.2% | 0.0 |
| $770 | 1.4% | 0.0 |
| $775 | 1.2% | 0.0 |
| $780 | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| $790 | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| $785 | 1.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 6?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on November 6, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to d
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 6?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, $740 is the favorite at 32.0%, followed by $745 at 24.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 6, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $398 in total and $398 in the last 24 hours, with about $1K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.