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Home / Markets / S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9?
Resolved market scorecard

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9?: result and scorecard

Resolved Down. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 28.5%; a week before, –. $439K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Down
resolved February 10, 2026

Price 1 day before

28.5%
Market leaned the wrong way

Price 7 days before

–
30 days before: –

Volume

$439K
1 outcome

SPXUp or DownDailyIndiciesFinance

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
DownWON$439K
UpLOST$439K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%02-0702-0802-10
DownUp
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 28% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on February 9 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on February 9 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Frequently asked questions

How did "S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9?" resolve?
It resolved Down around February 9, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 28.5% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$439K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.