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Home / Markets / What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
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What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is $7,000-$7,500 at 26.5%, ahead of $7,500-$8,000 at 24.5%. $58K traded across 6 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

26.5%
$7,000-$7,500 · Trade →

24h move

+5.5
pts · 7d +14.0

Volume

$58K
24h $3K · liquidity $27K

Closes

December 31, 2026
56 days left

S&P 500S&PRecurringAI BubbleIndicies

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
$7,000-$7,50026.5% +5.5+14.0$4K7.0¢
$7,500-$8,00024.5% 0.0+0.5$5K9.0¢
$6,500-$7,00023.0% +8.0+12.5$6K16.0¢
>$8,00017.5% -9.5-18.5$8K23.0¢
$6,000-$6,5006.7% 0.00.0$4K6.7¢
<$6,0004.4% -0.4-22.1$31K1.8¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%01-0706-0711-06
$7,000-$7,500$7,500-$8,000$6,500-$7,000>$8,000

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying $7,000-$7,500 at 27% risks 27¢ to win 74¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?"?
As of November 6, 2026, $7,000-$7,500 is the favorite at 26.5%, followed by $7,500-$8,000 at 24.5%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$58K in total and $3K in the last 24 hours, with about $27K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.