What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is ↓ $7,000 at 51.5%, ahead of ↓ $7,200 at 44.5%. $467K traded across 13 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
MonthlyMonthly HitS&P 500S&PRecurring
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| ↓ $7,000 | 51.5% | +22.5 |
| ↓ $7,200 | 44.5% | +9.0 |
| ↑ $8,000 | 26.5% | -19.5 |
| ↑ $8,200 | 12.5% | -1.0 |
| ↓ $6,200 | 6.5% | +1.8 |
| ↓ $5,800 | 5.0% | -0.1 |
| ↓ $6,000 | 4.7% | -0.4 |
| ↓ $5,200 | 3.7% | -1.4 |
| ↑ $9,000 | 3.5% | -0.5 |
| ↓ $4,500 | 2.5% | +0.2 |
| ↑ $8,600 | 1.8% | -1.6 |
| ↑ $9,300 | 1.5% | -0.1 |
| ↑ $10,000 | 1.1% | -0.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period f
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, ↓ $7,000 is the favorite at 51.5%, followed by ↓ $7,200 at 44.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $467K in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $146K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.