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Live market data

Sonora Governor Election Winner: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is Lorenia Valles Sampedro at 57.0%, ahead of Candidate A at 50.0%. $47K traded across 46 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

57.0%
Lorenia Valles Sampedro · Trade →

24h move

+1.0
pts · 7d -2.5

Volume

$47K
24h $120 · liquidity $124K

Closes

June 7, 2027
213 days left

MexicoPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Lorenia Valles Sampedro57.0% +1.0-2.5$29K6.0¢
Candidate A50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate B50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate C50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate D50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate E50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate F50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate G50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate H50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate I50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate J50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate K50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate L50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate M50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate N50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate O50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate P50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate Q50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate R50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate S50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate T50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate U50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate V50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate W50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate X50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate Y50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Candidate Z50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Other50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez14.9% -0.1+2.1$2K9.4¢
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas14.1% -2.1-12.6$3K11.7¢
Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez6.0% +0.4-0.2$80710.8¢
Rogelio Díaz Brown5.9% +0.1+1.7$61311.1¢
Javier Lamarque Cano1.4% -0.2-0.7$4K2.0¢
Damián Zepeda Vidales0.6% -0.1-0.1$7021.0¢
Natalia Rivera Grijalva0.5% -0.1-0.1$5210.9¢
Guadalupe María Soto0.4% +0.3+0.3$5210.5¢
Ernesto Gándara Camou0.3% -0.1-0.1$7420.4¢
Omar del Valle Colosio0.3% 0.00.0$5530.3¢
Manuel Scott Sánchez0.3% -0.1-0.1$5150.3¢
Froylán Gámez Gamboa0.2% 0.00.0$5440.2¢
Célida Teresa López Cárdenas0.1% 0.00.0$9660.1¢
Heriberto Aguilar Castillo0.1% 0.00.0$5500.1¢
Lilly Téllez García0.1% -0.1-0.1$6050.1¢
Víctor Hugo Celaya0.1% 0.00.0$5290.1¢
Patricia Mercado Castro0.1% 0.00.0$6620.1¢
María Dolores del Río Sánchez0.1% 0.0-0.1$5540.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%08-0509-2011-06
Lorenia Valles Sampedro

Market rules and resolution

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Lorenia Valles Sampedro at 57% risks 57¢ to win 43¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Sonora Governor Election Winner"?
As of November 6, 2026, Lorenia Valles Sampedro is the favorite at 57.0%, followed by Candidate A at 50.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on June 7, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$47K in total and $120 in the last 24 hours, with about $124K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.